For four consecutive months, violent fighting is raging in al-Fashir, North Darfur, the only major city in the region now under the control of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) against 90% of the whole region under the Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
What is the importance of the city and how controlling it can change the balance of war in Sudan?
Altaghyeer: Agencies
Observers say the importance of Darfur region lies in the fact that it represents an internal and external strategic depth for the country. It is bordering four countries which means, from a military point of view, controlling the western defense line for all regions of Sudan including the states of Kordofan (Darfur’s neighbour), al-Shamalia and Nahr al-Neel, north Sudan.
Darfur region is also home for huge reserves of natural resources and wealth.
The volatile security situation in Darfur continued to dominate the world’s attention, amid fears of increasing illegal migration and weapons smuggling into adjacent region which includes a number of fragile states and where reports indicate the spread of more than six million illegal weapons in the hands of terror groups.
Geopolitical factors
Darfur region is gaining great geopolitical importance as it covers vast area (a total area of 493,000 kms i.e more than a quarter of the country’s area) and borders four countries in the region (Libya, Chad, Central Africa and South Sudan) in addition to its great demographic and economic weight.
Darfur region hosts about 17% of Sudan’s total population of 48 million people.
Therefore, the outcome of the situation in Darfur will greatly affect the position on the ground inside Sudan and it will also impact the geopolitical situation in its four neighbouring countries.
Professor of political science, Mohamed Khalifa, stresses that Darfur region is gaining multi-dimensional political, economic and security importance
“The intensification of fighting in al-Fashir reflects the attempt of both warring parties to dominate the whole region by controlling its administrative and economic center and thus strengthening its position in any negotiations.”
Possible scenarios
Observers point out that the RSF’s control of al-Fashir will strengthen its grip over the entire Darfur region, thus secure an open line for military and logistical supplies, sending reinforcements out of the region, and annex Kordofan and directly menace al-Shamalia and Nahr al-Neel states.
On the other hand, if the army and its allied movements maintain their grip over the city, they will be able to move to reclaim the cities in North Darfur and the other four states in the region, disrupting the large source of human and logistical supply for the RSF. Also, the movements fighting alongside the army will be able to open up outside the region to the east and contribute to securing al-Shamalia and Nahr al-Neel states and perhaps move to help SAF in the capital, Khartoum.
Economic dimension
Economic expert Wael Fahmy concentrstes on the economic importance of Darfur region. He said due to its strategic geographical location, it links Sudan to a vital market in the aforementioned four African countries with a population of more than 100 million people. He explained in an interview with Sky News Arabia “the region has huge economic potentials. It accounts for about 20% of the total livestock in Sudan, estimated at about 130 million heads. It also has a huge reserve of mineral resources such as iron, lead, granite, chromium, copper, aluminium, marble and uranium. “If its population and commercial weight is taken advantage of, it can contribute more than 15% of the Sudanese gross national product.”
Source: A summary from an article posted by Sky News Arabia
