A recently published research reveals the severe and largely invisible impact of the war on Sudanese lives, especially of preventable disease and starvation.
Altaghyeer: Agencies
Over 90% of deaths in Khartoum State during the first 14 months of the war went unrecorded, suggesting the death toll in other regions is also significantly higher than recorded figures, a new study revealed on Wednesday.
The study was conducted by researchers from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) and is considered the first study to describe patterns of wartime mortality across Sudan and provide an empirical estimate of all-cause mortality in Khartoum State.
The researchers estimated over 61,000 people died of all causes, a 50% increase in the pre-war death rate.
Over the same period, “it is estimated that there were over 26,000 deaths due to violence in Khartoum State, significantly higher than the 20,178 intentional-injury deaths reported by ACLED for the entire country.”
The new study also found that across most of the country, between April 2023 and June 2024, the leading cause of death was preventable disease and starvation.
Deaths due to violence were proportionally highest in the Kordofan (80%) and Darfur (69%) regions, indicating targeted violence in these historically conflict-affected areas.
The researchers used a statistical method known as ‘capture-recapture analysis’ to estimate all-cause and violent (intentional-injury) deaths.
This method compares data from multiple sources to arrive at accurate estimates when not all data are recorded. The sources included a public survey shared on social media platforms, a private survey circulated among affected groups, and public social media pages containing obituaries posted by first responders.
Data collection was focused on Khartoum State, with a combined total of 6,715 decedent records reported across all sources.
“The analysis was conducted to provide accurate and timely mortality data, a critical indicator of the severity and nature of the crisis. This data has the potential to mobilise a humanitarian response, support advocacy for conflict resolution, and compose a historical record for accountability”, said the researchers.
The research reveals that since the war began its impact on Sudanese lives has been significant, unrecorded and largely preventable, with important regional contrasts. This has critical implications for impact mitigation efforts and emphasises the need for a scaled-up humanitarian response.
Dr Maysoon Dahab, lead author at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), said “Our findings reveal the severe and largely invisible impact of the war on Sudanese lives, especially of preventable disease and starvation. The overwhelming level of killings in Kordofan and Darfur indicate wars within a war. Efforts to stem further large-scale loss of life undoubtedly rest on vigorous diplomatic and humanitarian efforts to end the war and address its consequences. They must also include robust mechanisms that account for human rights violations and war crimes that fuel the conflict across the country.”
The study is funded by US Government funds through USAID/Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance (BHA) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and UK International Development from the UK government.
